St. Margarethen / Bur vs Oberpetersdorf

St. Margarethen / Bur

CANC

15:00

Oberpetersdorf

5/1/2021

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

St. Margarethen / Bur55%

×Draw21%

Oberpetersdorf23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Margarethen / BurExpected goals in this matchOberpetersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.29

St. Margarethen / Bur

2.08

Oberpetersdorf

1.29

St. Margarethen / Bur creates 61% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 26 away

1.66

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

St. Margarethen / Bur

1.66

Oberpetersdorf

1.00

allows per match

St. Margarethen / Bur

1.59

Oberpetersdorf

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par

Oberpetersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Margarethen / Bur ↓

Oberpetersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

St. Margarethen / Bur or draw

77%

St. Margarethen / Bur or Oberpetersdorf

79%

Draw or Oberpetersdorf

45%

Winning margin

St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+

33%

Oberpetersdorf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals

87%

St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals

61%

St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals

34%

Oberpetersdorf 1+ goals

72%

Oberpetersdorf 2+ goals

37%

Oberpetersdorf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)

70%

Oberpetersdorf (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Margarethen / Bur at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 87 matches

Oberpetersdorf away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.66 + Oberpetersdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Oberpetersdorf attack 1.00 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

St. Margarethen / Bur scores more

55%

level

21%

Oberpetersdorf scores more

23%

St. Margarethen / Bur at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "St. Margarethen / Bur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff