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St. Margarethen / Bur vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

St. Margarethen / Bur
St. Margarethen / Bur
FT
1 – 3
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
8/13/2021Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 3Greabochstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

St. Margarethen / Bur48%
×Draw22%
Markt Allhau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.93
Markt Allhau
1.48

St. Margarethen / Bur creates 30% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 41 away

creates per match

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.66
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.59
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Margarethen / Bur ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Margarethen / Bur or draw
70%
St. Margarethen / Bur or Markt Allhau
78%
Draw or Markt Allhau
52%

Winning margin

St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+
27%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals
85%
St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals
57%
St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals
30%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
77%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
43%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)
62%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Margarethen / Bur at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 87 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.66 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.93

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Margarethen / Bur scores more
48%
level
22%
Markt Allhau scores more
30%

St. Margarethen / Bur at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St. Margarethen / Bur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: St. Margarethen / Bur 1–3 Markt Allhau

Markt Allhau beat St. Margarethen / Bur 3-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Greabochstadion in Sankt Margarethen im Burgenland.