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St. Margarethen / Bur vs Leithaprodersdorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

St. Margarethen / Bur
St. Margarethen / Bur
FT
2 – 3
Leithaprodersdorf
Leithaprodersdorf
8/17/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 3Greabochstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

St. Margarethen / Bur40%
×Draw23%
Leithaprodersdorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.70
Leithaprodersdorf
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.66
Leithaprodersdorf
1.70

allows per match

St. Margarethen / Bur
1.59
Leithaprodersdorf
1.74

finishing

St. Margarethen / Bur+0.00on par
Leithaprodersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Margarethen / Bur ↓

Leithaprodersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

St. Margarethen / Bur or draw
62%
St. Margarethen / Bur or Leithaprodersdorf
77%
Draw or Leithaprodersdorf
60%

Winning margin

St. Margarethen / Bur wins by 2+
20%
Leithaprodersdorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

St. Margarethen / Bur 1+ goals
82%
St. Margarethen / Bur 2+ goals
51%
St. Margarethen / Bur 3+ goals
24%
Leithaprodersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Leithaprodersdorf 2+ goals
49%
Leithaprodersdorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Margarethen / Bur (draw refunded)
51%
Leithaprodersdorf (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Margarethen / Bur at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 87 matches

Leithaprodersdorf away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.74 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Margarethen / Bur attack 1.66 + Leithaprodersdorf defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.70

Leithaprodersdorf attack 1.70 + St. Margarethen / Bur defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Margarethen / Bur scores more
40%
level
23%
Leithaprodersdorf scores more
38%

St. Margarethen / Bur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Margarethen / Bur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Margarethen / Bur vs Leithaprodersdorf

Leithaprodersdorf beat St. Margarethen / Bur 3-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Greabochstadion in Sankt Margarethen im Burgenland.