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St. Louis SG vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
FT
1 – 2
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
5/21/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 7World Wide Technology Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

St. Louis SG30%
×Draw24%
Des Moines Menace45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis SG
1.30
Des Moines Menace
1.64

Des Moines Menace creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 41 away

creates per match

St. Louis SG
1.67
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

St. Louis SG
1.00
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

St. Louis SG+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis SG ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

St. Louis SG or draw
55%
St. Louis SG or Des Moines Menace
76%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
70%

Winning margin

St. Louis SG wins by 2+
13%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

St. Louis SG 1+ goals
73%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
37%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
14%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
81%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
49%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
40%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis SG at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis SG attack 1.67 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + St. Louis SG defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. Louis SG scores more
30%
level
24%
Des Moines Menace scores more
45%

Des Moines Menace at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Louis SG 1 – 2 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat St. Louis SG 2-1 in USL League Two on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park in St. Louis, Missouri.