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St. Louis City vs New York Red Bulls — Friendlies Clubs 2026

St. Louis City
St. Louis City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
N. Thorisson 75' (pen)
N. Blom 16'
W. Carmona 90+4' (pen)
D. Vanzeir 49'
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Empire Polo Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

St. Louis City59%
×Draw19%
New York Red Bulls22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City
2.45
New York Red Bulls
1.45

St. Louis City creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

St. Louis City
1.40
New York Red Bulls
1.50

allows per match

St. Louis City
1.40
New York Red Bulls
3.50

finishing

St. Louis City+0.00on par
New York Red Bulls+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

St. Louis City or draw
78%
St. Louis City or New York Red Bulls
81%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
41%

Winning margin

St. Louis City wins by 2+
38%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

St. Louis City 1+ goals
91%
St. Louis City 2+ goals
70%
St. Louis City 3+ goals
44%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
77%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
42%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City (draw refunded)
73%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City attack 1.40 + New York Red Bulls defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

New York Red Bulls attack 1.50 + St. Louis City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

St. Louis City scores more
59%
level
19%
New York Red Bulls scores more
22%

St. Louis City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St. Louis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
N. Blom
49'
D. Vanzeir
75'
N. ThorissonPenalty
90+4'
W. CarmonaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis City vs New York Red Bulls

St. Louis City and New York Red Bulls drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 10, 2024.

Goals: N. Blom (16'), D. Vanzeir (49'), N. Thorisson (75' pen), W. Carmona (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Empire Polo Club in Indio, California.