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St. Louis City vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

St. Louis City
St. Louis City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
3/3/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 3CITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

St. Louis City46%
×Draw25%
New York City FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City
1.54
New York City FC
1.14

St. Louis City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

St. Louis City
1.78
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

St. Louis City
1.05
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

St. Louis City+0.10scores more
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

St. Louis City or draw
72%
St. Louis City or New York City FC
75%
Draw or New York City FC
54%

Winning margin

St. Louis City wins by 2+
23%
New York City FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Louis City 1+ goals
79%
St. Louis City 2+ goals
45%
St. Louis City 3+ goals
20%
New York City FC 1+ goals
68%
New York City FC 2+ goals
32%
New York City FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City (draw refunded)
62%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City attack 1.78 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

New York City FC attack 1.23 + St. Louis City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Louis City scores more
46%
level
25%
New York City FC scores more
28%

St. Louis City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Louis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis City vs New York City FC

St. Louis City beat New York City FC 2-0 in Major League Soccer on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri.