St. Louis City 1–1 FC Dallas: Result & Stats

St. Louis City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Dallas

C. Pompeu 32'

P. Musa 35'

9/7/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 29Energizer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

St. Louis City49%

×Draw24%

FC Dallas28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Louis CityExpected goals in this matchFC Dallas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.27

St. Louis City

1.75

FC Dallas

1.27

St. Louis City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.05

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

St. Louis City

1.78

FC Dallas

1.50

allows per match

St. Louis City

1.05

FC Dallas

1.71

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

St. Louis City+0.10scores more

FC Dallas-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City ↓

FC Dallas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

St. Louis City or draw

72%

St. Louis City or FC Dallas

76%

Draw or FC Dallas

51%

Winning margin

St. Louis City wins by 2+

26%

FC Dallas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Louis City 1+ goals

83%

St. Louis City 2+ goals

52%

St. Louis City 3+ goals

25%

FC Dallas 1+ goals

72%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

36%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City (draw refunded)

64%

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City attack 1.78 + FC Dallas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Dallas attack 1.50 + St. Louis City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Louis City scores more

49%

level

24%

FC Dallas scores more

28%

St. Louis City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Louis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

J. Jackson

FC Dallas · G

9.5

Match Events

16'

Michael Collodi

19'

J. Jackson← Kaick

32'

C. Pompeu↳ E. Lowen

35'

P. Musa↳ C. Cappis

60'

Patrickson Delgado

68'

S. Lletget← P. Delgado

68'

S. Ibeagha← A. A. Julio Santos

69'

B. McSorley← S. Becher

75'

T. Ostrak← C. Pompeu

75'

T. Totland← D. Padelford

86'

L. Farrington← P. Musa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St.FC

Overview

67%Possession33%

43Total Shots4

3.46Expected Goals (xG)0.36

16Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

43Total Shots4

15On Target2

14Off Target0

14Blocked2

35Inside Box3

8Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

483Total Passes258

434Accurate Passes173

90%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves14

3.03Goals Prevented3.03

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0