Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Louis City II vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

St. Louis City II
St. Louis City IIadvanced
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
The Town
The Town
10/27/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Conference - Semi-finalsCITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

St. Louis City II46%
×Draw23%
The Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City II
1.82
The Town
1.45

St. Louis City II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 54 away

creates per match

St. Louis City II
2.19
The Town
1.80

allows per match

St. Louis City II
1.10
The Town
1.46

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw
69%
St. Louis City II or The Town
77%
Draw or The Town
54%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+
25%
The Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals
84%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
54%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
27%
The Town 1+ goals
77%
The Town 2+ goals
42%
The Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
60%
The Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.82

The Town attack 1.80 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Louis City II scores more
46%
level
23%
The Town scores more
31%

St. Louis City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis City II vs The Town

St. Louis City II and The Town drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri.