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St. Louis City II vs North Texas — MLS Next Pro 2026

St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
North Texas
North Texas
3/24/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 3CITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

St. Louis City II52%
×Draw23%
North Texas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City II
1.86
North Texas
1.23

St. Louis City II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

creates per match

St. Louis City II
2.19
North Texas
1.36

allows per match

St. Louis City II
1.10
North Texas
1.54

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par
North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

North Texas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw
75%
St. Louis City II or North Texas
77%
Draw or North Texas
48%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+
29%
North Texas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals
84%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
55%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
28%
North Texas 1+ goals
71%
North Texas 2+ goals
35%
North Texas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
67%
North Texas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + North Texas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.86

North Texas attack 1.36 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Louis City II scores more
52%
level
23%
North Texas scores more
25%

St. Louis City II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: St. Louis City II 1–1 North Texas

St. Louis City II and North Texas drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri.