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North Texas vs St. Louis City II — MLS Next Pro 2026

North Texas
North Texas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
8/17/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 30Choctaw Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

North Texas47%
×Draw21%
St. Louis City II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Texas
2.06
St. Louis City II
1.69

North Texas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 54 away

creates per match

North Texas
2.36
St. Louis City II
1.94

allows per match

North Texas
1.45
St. Louis City II
1.76

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par
St. Louis City II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

St. Louis City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

North Texas or draw
68%
North Texas or St. Louis City II
79%
Draw or St. Louis City II
53%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+
27%
St. Louis City II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals
87%
North Texas 2+ goals
61%
North Texas 3+ goals
34%
St. Louis City II 1+ goals
82%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
50%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)
59%
St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

St. Louis City II away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.36 + St. Louis City II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

St. Louis City II attack 1.94 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

North Texas scores more
47%
level
21%
St. Louis City II scores more
32%

North Texas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: North Texas 1–3 St. Louis City II

St. Louis City II beat North Texas 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Choctaw Stadium.