St Joseph FC 1–1 Nairobi Stima: Result & Stats

St Joseph FC

FT

1 – 1

Nairobi Stima

4/14/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

St Joseph FC44%

×Draw25%

Nairobi Stima32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Joseph FCExpected goals in this matchNairobi Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.31

St Joseph FC

1.59

Nairobi Stima

1.31

St Joseph FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.88

creates per match

1.69

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

St Joseph FC

1.88

Nairobi Stima

1.69

allows per match

St Joseph FC

0.94

Nairobi Stima

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

Nairobi Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw

68%

St Joseph FC or Nairobi Stima

75%

Draw or Nairobi Stima

56%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+

22%

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals

80%

St Joseph FC 2+ goals

47%

St Joseph FC 3+ goals

21%

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals

73%

Nairobi Stima 2+ goals

38%

Nairobi Stima 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)

58%

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.88 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nairobi Stima attack 1.69 + St Joseph FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St Joseph FC scores more

44%

level

25%

Nairobi Stima scores more

32%

St Joseph FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff