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St Joseph FC vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
FT
1 – 0
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
10/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St Joseph FC52%
×Draw25%
Kibera Black Stars23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Joseph FC
1.59
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

St Joseph FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

St Joseph FC
1.87
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

St Joseph FC
0.93
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw
77%
St Joseph FC or Kibera Black Stars
75%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
48%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+
28%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals
80%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
47%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
21%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
61%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
25%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
70%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.87 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + St Joseph FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St Joseph FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
23%

St Joseph FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: St Joseph FC 1–0 Kibera Black Stars

St Joseph FC beat Kibera Black Stars 1-0 in Super League on October 7, 2018.