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St Joseph FC vs Isibania — Super League 2018

St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
FT
6 – 0
Isibania
Isibania
10/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St Joseph FC66%
×Draw21%
Isibania13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Joseph FC
1.91
Isibania
0.69

St Joseph FC creates 177% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

St Joseph FC
1.87
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

St Joseph FC
0.93
Isibania
1.94

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw
87%
St Joseph FC or Isibania
79%
Draw or Isibania
34%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+
40%
Isibania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals
85%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
57%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
30%
Isibania 1+ goals
50%
Isibania 2+ goals
15%
Isibania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
84%
Isibania (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.87 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Isibania attack 0.44 + St Joseph FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

St Joseph FC scores more
66%
level
21%
Isibania scores more
13%

St Joseph FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: St Joseph FC 6–0 Isibania

St Joseph FC beat Isibania 6-0 in Super League on October 3, 2018.