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St Joseph FC vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
FT
1 – 3
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
9/9/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

St Joseph FC47%
×Draw26%
FC Talanta27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Joseph FC
1.52
FC Talanta
1.08

St Joseph FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

St Joseph FC
1.88
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

St Joseph FC
0.94
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

St Joseph FC+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Joseph FC ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

St Joseph FC or draw
73%
St Joseph FC or FC Talanta
74%
Draw or FC Talanta
53%

Winning margin

St Joseph FC wins by 2+
24%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St Joseph FC 1+ goals
78%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
45%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
20%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
66%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
29%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
64%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Joseph FC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Joseph FC attack 1.88 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + St Joseph FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St Joseph FC scores more
47%
level
26%
FC Talanta scores more
27%

St Joseph FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St Joseph FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St Joseph FC vs FC Talanta

FC Talanta beat St Joseph FC 3-1 in Super League on September 9, 2018.