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ST Johnstone vs Stirling Albion — League Cup 2018

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
7/29/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ST Johnstone63%
×Draw19%
Stirling Albion17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
2.24
Stirling Albion
1.07

ST Johnstone creates 109% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
2.77
Stirling Albion
1.29

allows per match

ST Johnstone
0.85
Stirling Albion
1.71

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
83%
ST Johnstone or Stirling Albion
81%
Draw or Stirling Albion
37%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
41%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
89%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
65%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
38%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
66%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
29%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
79%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.77 + Stirling Albion defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stirling Albion attack 1.29 + ST Johnstone defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
63%
level
19%
Stirling Albion scores more
17%

ST Johnstone at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: ST Johnstone 0–4 Stirling Albion

Stirling Albion beat ST Johnstone 4-0 in League Cup on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.