ST Johnstone 3–0 Morton: Result & Stats | FA Cup

ST Johnstone

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Morton

S. May 74'

M. Davidson 57'

C. Booth 4'

1/18/2020

FA Cup · 4th RoundMcDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ST Johnstone62%

×Draw22%

Morton15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchMorton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.78

ST Johnstone

1.83

Morton

0.78

ST Johnstone creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.88

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

ST Johnstone

1.00

Morton

0.67

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.88

Morton

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Morton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

85%

ST Johnstone or Morton

78%

Draw or Morton

38%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

37%

Morton wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

84%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

54%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

28%

Morton 1+ goals

54%

Morton 2+ goals

18%

Morton 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

80%

Morton (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Morton away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 1.00 + Morton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Morton attack 0.67 + ST Johnstone defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

62%

level

22%

Morton scores more

15%

ST Johnstone at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Booth

57'

M. Davidson↳ D. Wright

66'

J. Sutton← S. Welsh

72'

C. Millar← L. Colville

74'

S. May↳ A. Ralston

77'

W. Duffy← A. Ralston

80'

R. Lyon← R. Muirhead

82'

C. Hendry← S. May

82'

S. Tanser← D. Wotherspoon

ST

Morton

20

4

2

30

16

3

▼

8

6

19

29

▼

Colville

9

▼

Muirhead

1

Clark

24

⚽

Booth

23

Gordon

15

Kerr

21

A

▼

Ralston

8

⚽

Davidson

10

▼

Wotherspo

7

A

Wright

18

McCann

14

⚽

▼

May

9

Kane

Manager: T. Wright

77'▲W. Duffy←▼A. Ralston

82'▲C. Hendry←▼S. May

82'▲S. Tanser←▼D. Wotherspoon

ST Johnstone substitutes

2Duffy22Hendry3Tanser26Craig12Parish19Holt17O'Halloran

Manager: D. Hopkin

66'▲J. Sutton←▼S. Welsh

72'▲C. Millar←▼L. Colville

80'▲R. Lyon←▼R. Muirhead

Morton substitutes

21Sutton7Millar17Lyon12Orsi18Blues1Ramsbottom5Grant