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ST Johnstone vs Morton — League Cup 2025

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
Preview
14:00
Morton
Morton
7/18/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageMcDiarmid Park
86%
ST Johnstone
model favours
86%10%5%

ST Johnstone and Morton have never met before

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ST Johnstone86%
×Draw10%
Morton5%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
3.25
Morton
0.67

ST Johnstone creates 385% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
4.00
Morton
1.00

allows per match

ST Johnstone
0.33
Morton
2.50

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Morton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
95%
ST Johnstone or Morton
90%
Draw or Morton
14%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
68%
Morton wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
96%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
83%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
61%
Morton 1+ goals
49%
Morton 2+ goals
15%
Morton 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
95%
Morton (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Morton away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 4.00 + Morton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.25

Morton attack 1.00 + ST Johnstone defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
86%
level
10%
Morton scores more
5%

ST Johnstone at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Johnstone
WWWWD
Morton
LLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ST Johnstone vs Morton — Match Preview

ST Johnstone face Morton on July 18, 2026 in this League Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ST Johnstone host Morton at McDiarmid Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.