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ST Johnstone vs Hibernian — Premiership 2018

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hibernian
Hibernian
12/16/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 21McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

ST Johnstone35%
×Draw28%
Hibernian37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
1.17
Hibernian
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 136 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
0.94
Hibernian
1.21

allows per match

ST Johnstone
1.21
Hibernian
1.41

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
63%
ST Johnstone or Hibernian
72%
Draw or Hibernian
65%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
15%
Hibernian wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
69%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
11%
Hibernian 1+ goals
70%
Hibernian 2+ goals
34%
Hibernian 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
49%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.41 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Hibernian defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hibernian attack 1.21 + ST Johnstone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
35%
level
28%
Hibernian scores more
37%

Hibernian at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian

ST Johnstone beat Hibernian 1-0 in Premiership on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.