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ST Johnstone vs Hibernian — FA Cup 2019

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstoneadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hibernian
Hibernian
S. Rooney 32'
5/22/2021FA CupFA Cup · FinalHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ST Johnstone27%
×Draw27%
Hibernian46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
0.97
Hibernian
1.37

Hibernian creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
1.00
Hibernian
1.86

allows per match

ST Johnstone
0.88
Hibernian
0.93

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
54%
ST Johnstone or Hibernian
73%
Draw or Hibernian
73%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
9%
Hibernian wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
62%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
25%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
7%
Hibernian 1+ goals
75%
Hibernian 2+ goals
40%
Hibernian 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
37%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 1.00 + Hibernian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Hibernian attack 1.86 + ST Johnstone defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
27%
level
27%
Hibernian scores more
46%

Hibernian at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
S. Rooney↳ D. Wotherspoon
44'
Jackson Irvine
56'
J. Murphy← A. Gogić
64'
M. Davidson← C. Bryson
72'
M. Hallberg← J. Newell
74'
Paul McGinn
76'
L. Stevenson← J. Doig
79'
J. Brown← S. Rooney
82'
M. O'Halloran← G. Middleton
87'
Ryan Porteous
88'
Martin Boyle

Possession

42%ST

Shots

8ST

Statistics

STHibernian
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots4
2Corners4
12Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots4
7On Target2
1Off Target2
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

FA Cup: ST Johnstone 1–0 Hibernian

ST Johnstone beat Hibernian 1-0 in FA Cup on May 22, 2021.

Goals: S. Rooney (32').

Hibernian controlled possession (58%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.