ST Johnstone 5–1 East Fife: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

East Fife

B. Kimpioka 90+1', 28'

M. Kirk 88'

A. Sidibeh 44', 15'

A. Trouten 64'

7/27/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 7McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ST Johnstone89%

×Draw8%

East Fife3%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.40

0.54

ST Johnstone

3.40

East Fife

0.54

ST Johnstone creates 530% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.80

creates per match

0.67

0.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

ST Johnstone

3.80

East Fife

0.67

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.40

East Fife

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

East Fife →

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

97%

ST Johnstone or East Fife

92%

Draw or East Fife

11%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

73%

East Fife wins by 2+

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

96%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

84%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

64%

East Fife 1+ goals

42%

East Fife 2+ goals

10%

East Fife 3+ goals

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

97%

East Fife (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 3.80 + East Fife defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.40

East Fife attack 0.67 + ST Johnstone defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

89%

level

East Fife scores more

ST Johnstone at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Sidibeh↳ D. Keltjens

28'

B. Kimpioka↳ A. Raymond

44'

A. Sidibeh↳ S. McClelland

56'

M. Kucheriavyi← C. MacPherson

64'

A. Trouten

73'

F. Franczak← A. Raymond

74'

M. Kirk← A. Sidibeh

76'

A. Laaref← S. Shepherd

76'

80'

85'

88'

90+1'

B. Kimpioka↳ M. Smith

East

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

Sidibeh

Manager: C. Levein

56'▲M. Kucheriavyi←▼C. MacPherson

73'▲F. Franczak←▼A. Raymond

74'▲M. Kirk←▼A. Sidibeh

85'▲T. Steven←▼G. Carey

ST Johnstone substitutes

17Kucheriavyi46Franczak27Kirk19Steven32Parker20Sinclair23Sprangler5Sanders21Smith

Manager: D. Campbell

76'▲A. Laaref←▼S. Shepherd

76'▲C. McManus←▼J. Healy

80'▲G. Nicol←▼L. Newton

East Fife substitutes

16Laaref6McManus12Nicol8Slattery1Fleming17Docherty24Ramsay20Murray