ST Johnstone 3–1 Dundee: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dundee

S. May 46'

C. Kane 39', 31'

R. Sweeney 74'

10/2/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 8McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

ST Johnstone47%

×Draw26%

Dundee27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.05

ST Johnstone

1.47

Dundee

1.05

ST Johnstone creates 40% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 83 away

0.94

creates per match

0.93

1.18

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

ST Johnstone

0.94

Dundee

0.93

allows per match

ST Johnstone

1.18

Dundee

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

73%

ST Johnstone or Dundee

74%

Draw or Dundee

53%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

23%

Dundee wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

77%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

43%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

18%

Dundee 1+ goals

65%

Dundee 2+ goals

28%

Dundee 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

63%

Dundee (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 116 matches

Dundee away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Dundee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dundee attack 0.93 + ST Johnstone defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

47%

level

26%

Dundee scores more

27%

ST Johnstone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. O'Halloran

ST Johnstone · D

8.5

Match Events

21'

Chris Kane

31'

C. Kane↳ M. O'Halloran

39'

C. Kane↳ S. May

46'

L. McCowan← S. Byrne

46'

C. Sheridan← L. Fontaine

46'

S. May↳ M. O'Halloran

50'

Jordan McGhee

59'

C. MacPherson← A. Crawford

70'

M. Anderson← J. McGhee

74'

R. Sweeney↳ P. McMullan

75'

G. Middleton← S. May

79'

Liam Craig

80'

H. Muller← M. OHalloran

89'

David Wotherspoon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

STDundee

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots8

3Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

381Total Passes462

260Accurate Passes312

68%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3