Dundee 1–1 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Dundee

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ST Johnstone

4/23/2022

Premiership · Championship Round - 1Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Dundee40%

×Draw26%

ST Johnstone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.26

Dundee

1.40

ST Johnstone

1.26

Dundee creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 121 away

1.21

creates per match

0.92

1.59

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Dundee

1.21

ST Johnstone

0.92

allows per match

Dundee

1.59

ST Johnstone

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

66%

Dundee or ST Johnstone

74%

Draw or ST Johnstone

60%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

19%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

75%

Dundee 2+ goals

41%

Dundee 3+ goals

17%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

72%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

36%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

54%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.21 + ST Johnstone defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

ST Johnstone attack 0.92 + Dundee defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dundee scores more

40%

level

26%

ST Johnstone scores more

34%

Dundee at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff