ST Johnstone 1–1 Aberdeen: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aberdeen

1/24/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 18McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

ST Johnstone39%

×Draw29%

Aberdeen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchAberdeen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

ST Johnstone

1.19

Aberdeen

1.06

ST Johnstone creates 12% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 138 away

0.94

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

ST Johnstone

0.94

Aberdeen

0.91

allows per match

ST Johnstone

1.21

Aberdeen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Aberdeen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

68%

ST Johnstone or Aberdeen

71%

Draw or Aberdeen

61%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

17%

Aberdeen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

70%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

33%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

12%

Aberdeen 1+ goals

65%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

29%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

55%

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Aberdeen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aberdeen attack 0.91 + ST Johnstone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

39%

level

29%

Aberdeen scores more

32%

ST Johnstone at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff