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Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
5/4/2024PremiershipPremiership · Relegation Round - 2Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Aberdeen49%
×Draw26%
ST Johnstone25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.54
ST Johnstone
1.02

Aberdeen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 121 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
1.51
ST Johnstone
0.92

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.58

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
75%
Aberdeen or ST Johnstone
74%
Draw or ST Johnstone
51%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
25%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
79%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
45%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
20%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
64%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
27%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
66%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.51 + ST Johnstone defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

ST Johnstone attack 0.92 + Aberdeen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aberdeen scores more
49%
level
26%
ST Johnstone scores more
25%

Aberdeen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone

Aberdeen beat ST Johnstone 1-0 in Premiership on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.