St. Johann in Tirol 2–1 SV Innsbruck

St. Johann in Tirol

FT

2 – 1

SV Innsbruck

5/26/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 26Koasastadion St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

St. Johann in Tirol51%

×Draw21%

SV Innsbruck29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Johann in TirolExpected goals in this matchSV Innsbruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.60

St. Johann in Tirol

2.17

SV Innsbruck

1.60

St. Johann in Tirol creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 27 away

2.23

creates per match

1.70

1.51

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

St. Johann in Tirol

2.23

SV Innsbruck

1.70

allows per match

St. Johann in Tirol

1.51

SV Innsbruck

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Johann in Tirol ↓

SV Innsbruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

St. Johann in Tirol or draw

71%

St. Johann in Tirol or SV Innsbruck

79%

Draw or SV Innsbruck

49%

Winning margin

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+

30%

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals

89%

St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals

64%

St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals

36%

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals

80%

SV Innsbruck 2+ goals

47%

SV Innsbruck 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)

64%

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Johann in Tirol at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Johann in Tirol attack 2.23 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

St. Johann in Tirol scores more

51%

level

21%

SV Innsbruck scores more

29%

St. Johann in Tirol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff