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St. Jakob Rosental vs Wolfsberg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
FT
2 – 3
Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
9/14/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 8Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental46%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
2.05
Wolfsberg
1.72

St. Jakob Rosental creates 19% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 84 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
Wolfsberg
1.77

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
Wolfsberg
2.24

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
67%
St. Jakob Rosental or Wolfsberg
79%
Draw or Wolfsberg
54%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
26%
Wolfsberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
87%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
61%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
33%
Wolfsberg 1+ goals
82%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
51%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
58%
Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + Wolfsberg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.05

Wolfsberg attack 1.77 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
46%
level
21%
Wolfsberg scores more
33%

St. Jakob Rosental at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Jakob Rosental vs Wolfsberg

Wolfsberg beat St. Jakob Rosental 3-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental in St. Jakob im Rosental.