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St. Jakob Rosental vs Treibach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
CANC
21:00
Treibach
Treibach
5/9/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 24Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental35%
×Draw22%
Treibach43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
1.69
Treibach
1.87

Treibach creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 29 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
Treibach
2.07

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
Treibach
1.52

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
Treibach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

Treibach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
57%
St. Jakob Rosental or Treibach
78%
Draw or Treibach
65%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
18%
Treibach wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
82%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
50%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
24%
Treibach 1+ goals
85%
Treibach 2+ goals
56%
Treibach 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
45%
Treibach (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Treibach away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + Treibach defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Treibach attack 2.07 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
35%
level
22%
Treibach scores more
43%

Treibach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: St. Jakob Rosental host Treibach

May 9, 2021: St. Jakob Rosental take on Treibach in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

St. Jakob Rosental host Treibach at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.