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St. Jakob Rosental vs St. Andrä — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
FT
3 – 0
St. Andrä
St. Andrä
4/1/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental50%
×Draw21%
St. Andrä28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
2.06
St. Andrä
1.50

St. Jakob Rosental creates 37% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
St. Andrä
1.33

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
St. Andrä
2.27

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
St. Andrä+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

St. Andrä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
72%
St. Jakob Rosental or St. Andrä
79%
Draw or St. Andrä
50%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
29%
St. Andrä wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
87%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
61%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
34%
St. Andrä 1+ goals
78%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
44%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
64%
St. Andrä (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

St. Andrä away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + St. Andrä defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

St. Andrä attack 1.33 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
50%
level
21%
St. Andrä scores more
28%

St. Jakob Rosental at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Jakob Rosental 3–0 St. Andrä

St. Jakob Rosental beat St. Andrä 3-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental in St. Jakob im Rosental.