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St. Jakob Rosental vs Donau Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Donau Klagenfurt
Donau Klagenfurt
6/6/2025Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 30ATSV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental46%
×Draw22%
Donau Klagenfurt31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
1.88
Donau Klagenfurt
1.52

St. Jakob Rosental creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
Donau Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
Donau Klagenfurt
1.89

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

Donau Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
69%
St. Jakob Rosental or Donau Klagenfurt
78%
Draw or Donau Klagenfurt
54%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
25%
Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
85%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
56%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
29%
Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals
78%
Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals
45%
Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
59%
Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Donau Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
46%
level
22%
Donau Klagenfurt scores more
31%

St. Jakob Rosental at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Jakob Rosental 4–4 Donau Klagenfurt

St. Jakob Rosental and Donau Klagenfurt drew 4-4 in Landesliga - Karnten on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at ATSV Arena in Wolfsberg.