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St George Willawong vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

St George Willawong
St George Willawong
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
S. Loughlin 55'
S. Gjorgiev 45'
J. Fulluck 5' (pen)
Unknown 10' (pen)
6/9/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 14St George's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

St George Willawong53%
×Draw21%
Mitchelton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George Willawong
2.13
Mitchelton
1.44

St George Willawong creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 43 away

creates per match

St George Willawong
1.60
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

St George Willawong
1.55
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

St George Willawong+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George Willawong ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St George Willawong or draw
74%
St George Willawong or Mitchelton
79%
Draw or Mitchelton
47%

Winning margin

St George Willawong wins by 2+
32%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St George Willawong 1+ goals
88%
St George Willawong 2+ goals
63%
St George Willawong 3+ goals
35%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
76%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
42%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

St George Willawong (draw refunded)
67%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George Willawong at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George Willawong attack 1.60 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + St George Willawong defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St George Willawong scores more
53%
level
21%
Mitchelton scores more
26%

St George Willawong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St George Willawong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. FulluckPenalty
10'
Penalty
45'
S. Gjorgiev
55'
S. Loughlin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St George Willawong vs Mitchelton

St George Willawong beat Mitchelton 3-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 9, 2024.

Goals: J. Fulluck (5' pen), ? (10' pen), S. Gjorgiev (45'), S. Loughlin (55').

The match was played at St George's Park in Willawong.