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St George Willawong vs Broadbeach United — Queensland Premier League 2026

St George Willawong
St George Willawong
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United
6/23/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 16St George's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

St George Willawong31%
×Draw22%
Broadbeach United47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George Willawong
1.55
Broadbeach United
1.96

Broadbeach United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

St George Willawong
1.60
Broadbeach United
2.38

allows per match

St George Willawong
1.55
Broadbeach United
1.50

finishing

St George Willawong+0.00on par
Broadbeach United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George Willawong ↓

Broadbeach United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St George Willawong or draw
53%
St George Willawong or Broadbeach United
78%
Draw or Broadbeach United
69%

Winning margin

St George Willawong wins by 2+
14%
Broadbeach United wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

St George Willawong 1+ goals
79%
St George Willawong 2+ goals
46%
St George Willawong 3+ goals
20%
Broadbeach United 1+ goals
86%
Broadbeach United 2+ goals
58%
Broadbeach United 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

St George Willawong (draw refunded)
39%
Broadbeach United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George Willawong at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Broadbeach United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George Willawong attack 1.60 + Broadbeach United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Broadbeach United attack 2.38 + St George Willawong defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St George Willawong scores more
31%
level
22%
Broadbeach United scores more
47%

Broadbeach United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Broadbeach United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St George Willawong vs Broadbeach United

St George Willawong and Broadbeach United drew 2-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at St George's Park in Willawong.