St. George Saints 1–0 Sydney FC U23: Result & Stats

St. George Saints

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sydney FC U23

5/27/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 13Saint George Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

St. George Saints38%

×Draw23%

Sydney FC U2339%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. George SaintsExpected goals in this matchSydney FC U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.62

St. George Saints

1.60

Sydney FC U23

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 94 away

1.38

creates per match

1.56

1.68

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

St. George Saints

1.38

Sydney FC U23

1.56

allows per match

St. George Saints

1.68

Sydney FC U23

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

Sydney FC U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw

61%

St. George Saints or Sydney FC U23

77%

Draw or Sydney FC U23

62%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+

19%

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals

80%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

47%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

22%

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

80%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

48%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

49%

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.68 · 40 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.38 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + St. George Saints defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

St. George Saints scores more

38%

level

23%

Sydney FC U23 scores more

39%

Sydney FC U23 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff