St. George Saints 1–2 Rockdale City Suns

St. George Saints

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rockdale City Suns

2/14/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 2Saint George Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

St. George Saints31%

×Draw23%

Rockdale City Suns46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. George SaintsExpected goals in this matchRockdale City Suns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.78

St. George Saints

1.43

Rockdale City Suns

1.78

Rockdale City Suns creates 24% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 95 away

1.37

creates per match

1.78

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

St. George Saints

1.37

Rockdale City Suns

1.78

allows per match

St. George Saints

1.78

Rockdale City Suns

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

Rockdale City Suns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw

54%

St. George Saints or Rockdale City Suns

77%

Draw or Rockdale City Suns

69%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+

14%

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals

76%

St. George Saints 2+ goals

42%

St. George Saints 3+ goals

17%

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals

83%

Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals

53%

Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)

40%

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

Rockdale City Suns away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.49 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.37 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rockdale City Suns attack 1.78 + St. George Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. George Saints scores more

31%

level

23%

Rockdale City Suns scores more

46%

Rockdale City Suns at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff