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St. George Saints vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

St. George Saints
St. George Saints
CANC
09:00
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
7/24/2021New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 21Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. George Saints51%
×Draw23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. George Saints
1.85
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.26

St. George Saints creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

creates per match

St. George Saints
1.73
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

St. George Saints
1.21
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

St. George Saints+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. George Saints ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. George Saints or draw
74%
St. George Saints or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
77%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
49%

Winning margin

St. George Saints wins by 2+
29%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. George Saints 1+ goals
84%
St. George Saints 2+ goals
55%
St. George Saints 3+ goals
28%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
72%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
36%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

St. George Saints (draw refunded)
66%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. George Saints at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. George Saints attack 1.73 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + St. George Saints defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

St. George Saints scores more
51%
level
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
26%

St. George Saints at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "St. George Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: St. George Saints host Bonnyrigg White Eagles

July 24, 2021: St. George Saints take on Bonnyrigg White Eagles in New South Wales NPL 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

St. George Saints host Bonnyrigg White Eagles at Illinden Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.