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St. Gallen W vs Rapperswil Jona W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

St. Gallen W
St. Gallen W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapperswil Jona W
Rapperswil Jona W
10/19/2024AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 9Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

St. Gallen W68%
×Draw18%
Rapperswil Jona W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen W
2.46
Rapperswil Jona W
1.06

St. Gallen W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 41 away

creates per match

St. Gallen W
2.09
Rapperswil Jona W
0.80

allows per match

St. Gallen W
1.33
Rapperswil Jona W
2.83

finishing

St. Gallen W+0.00on par
Rapperswil Jona W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen W ↓

Rapperswil Jona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Gallen W or draw
85%
St. Gallen W or Rapperswil Jona W
82%
Draw or Rapperswil Jona W
32%

Winning margin

St. Gallen W wins by 2+
45%
Rapperswil Jona W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

St. Gallen W 1+ goals
91%
St. Gallen W 2+ goals
70%
St. Gallen W 3+ goals
44%
Rapperswil Jona W 1+ goals
65%
Rapperswil Jona W 2+ goals
29%
Rapperswil Jona W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen W (draw refunded)
82%
Rapperswil Jona W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

Rapperswil Jona W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen W attack 2.09 + Rapperswil Jona W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.46

Rapperswil Jona W attack 0.80 + St. Gallen W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

St. Gallen W scores more
68%
level
18%
Rapperswil Jona W scores more
15%

St. Gallen W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "St. Gallen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Gallen W vs Rapperswil Jona W

St. Gallen W beat Rapperswil Jona W 4-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Espenmoos in St. Gallen.