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St. Gallen II vs Servette II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Servette II
Servette II
8/12/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

St. Gallen II41%
×Draw23%
Servette II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen II
1.78
Servette II
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

St. Gallen II
1.68
Servette II
1.24

allows per match

St. Gallen II
2.06
Servette II
1.88

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw
64%
St. Gallen II or Servette II
77%
Draw or Servette II
59%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+
22%
Servette II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals
83%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
53%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
26%
Servette II 1+ goals
81%
Servette II 2+ goals
49%
Servette II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
53%
Servette II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Servette II attack 1.24 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

St. Gallen II scores more
41%
level
23%
Servette II scores more
36%

St. Gallen II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Gallen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Gallen II vs Servette II

St. Gallen II beat Servette II 4-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Espenmoos in St. Gallen.