St. Gallen II 1–2 Biel-Bienne: Result & Stats

St. Gallen II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Biel-Bienne

3/9/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Lidl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

St. Gallen II35%

×Draw22%

Biel-Bienne43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Gallen IIExpected goals in this matchBiel-Bienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.85

St. Gallen II

1.65

Biel-Bienne

1.85

Biel-Bienne creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

1.68

creates per match

1.64

2.06

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

St. Gallen II

1.68

Biel-Bienne

1.64

allows per match

St. Gallen II

2.06

Biel-Bienne

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen II ↓

Biel-Bienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

St. Gallen II or draw

57%

St. Gallen II or Biel-Bienne

78%

Draw or Biel-Bienne

65%

Winning margin

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

17%

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

81%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

49%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

23%

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals

84%

Biel-Bienne 2+ goals

55%

Biel-Bienne 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

45%

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

Biel-Bienne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.63 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen II attack 1.68 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Biel-Bienne attack 1.64 + St. Gallen II defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St. Gallen II scores more

35%

level

22%

Biel-Bienne scores more

43%

Biel-Bienne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff