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Viby vs Lyseng — Denmark Series - Group 3 2015

Viby
Viby
FT
2 – 4
Lyseng
Lyseng
4/2/2016Denmark Series - Group 3Denmark Series - Group 3 · Round 15Viby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viby22%
×Draw20%
Lyseng58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viby
1.30
Lyseng
2.21

Lyseng creates 70% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Viby
1.43
Lyseng
3.00

allows per match

Viby
1.43
Lyseng
1.17

finishing

Viby+0.00on par
Lyseng+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viby ↓

Lyseng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viby or draw
42%
Viby or Lyseng
80%
Draw or Lyseng
78%

Winning margin

Viby wins by 2+
9%
Lyseng wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Viby 1+ goals
73%
Viby 2+ goals
37%
Viby 3+ goals
14%
Lyseng 1+ goals
89%
Lyseng 2+ goals
65%
Lyseng 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Viby (draw refunded)
28%
Lyseng (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viby at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Lyseng away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viby attack 1.43 + Lyseng defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lyseng attack 3.00 + Viby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Viby scores more
22%
level
20%
Lyseng scores more
58%

Lyseng at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viby vs Lyseng

Lyseng beat Viby 4-2 in Denmark Series - Group 3 on April 2, 2016.

The match was played at Viby Idrætspark in Viby J.