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Viby vs Lyseng — League #127 2026

Viby
Viby
FT
0 – 1
Lyseng
Lyseng
10/12/2019League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 11Lyseng Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Viby20%
×Draw23%
Lyseng57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viby
1.01
Lyseng
1.85

Lyseng creates 83% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Viby
1.80
Lyseng
2.00

allows per match

Viby
1.70
Lyseng
0.22

finishing

Viby+0.00on par
Lyseng+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viby ↓

Lyseng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Viby or draw
43%
Viby or Lyseng
77%
Draw or Lyseng
80%

Winning margin

Viby wins by 2+
7%
Lyseng wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Viby 1+ goals
64%
Viby 2+ goals
27%
Viby 3+ goals
8%
Lyseng 1+ goals
84%
Lyseng 2+ goals
55%
Lyseng 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Viby (draw refunded)
26%
Lyseng (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viby at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Lyseng away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viby attack 1.80 + Lyseng defence 0.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Lyseng attack 2.00 + Viby defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Viby scores more
20%
level
23%
Lyseng scores more
57%

Lyseng at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viby 0 – 1 Lyseng

Lyseng beat Viby 1-0 in League #127 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Lyseng Idrætspark in Højbjerg.