St. Cuthbert Wanderers 1–3 Gala Fairydean Rovers

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Gala Fairydean Rovers

10/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundSt Mary’s Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

St. Cuthbert Wanderers11%

×Draw14%

Gala Fairydean Rovers75%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Cuthbert WanderersExpected goals in this matchGala Fairydean Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.13

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

1.17

Gala Fairydean Rovers

3.13

Gala Fairydean Rovers creates 168% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.50

creates per match

2.00

4.25

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

0.50

Gala Fairydean Rovers

2.00

allows per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

4.25

Gala Fairydean Rovers

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Cuthbert Wanderers+0.00on par

Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Cuthbert Wanderers ↓

Gala Fairydean Rovers →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

St. Cuthbert Wanderers or draw

25%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers or Gala Fairydean Rovers

86%

Draw or Gala Fairydean Rovers

89%

Winning margin

St. Cuthbert Wanderers wins by 2+

Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 1+ goals

69%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2+ goals

33%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals

95%

Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals

81%

Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

St. Cuthbert Wanderers (draw refunded)

13%

Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

St. Cuthbert Wanderers at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers attack 0.50 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.00 + St. Cuthbert Wanderers defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

St. Cuthbert Wanderers scores more

11%

level

14%

Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more

75%

Gala Fairydean Rovers at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gala Fairydean Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff