St. Cuthbert Wanderers 0–5 Dalkeith Thistle

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

0 – 5

Dalkeith Thistle

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundSt Mary’s Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

St. Cuthbert Wanderers20%

×Draw17%

Dalkeith Thistle63%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Cuthbert WanderersExpected goals in this matchDalkeith Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.88

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

1.63

Dalkeith Thistle

2.88

Dalkeith Thistle creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.50

creates per match

1.50

4.25

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

0.50

Dalkeith Thistle

1.50

allows per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers

4.25

Dalkeith Thistle

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Cuthbert Wanderers+0.00on par

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Cuthbert Wanderers ↓

Dalkeith Thistle →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

St. Cuthbert Wanderers or draw

37%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers or Dalkeith Thistle

83%

Draw or Dalkeith Thistle

80%

Winning margin

St. Cuthbert Wanderers wins by 2+

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 1+ goals

80%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2+ goals

48%

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 3+ goals

22%

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals

94%

Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals

78%

Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

St. Cuthbert Wanderers (draw refunded)

25%

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

St. Cuthbert Wanderers at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Dalkeith Thistle away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers attack 0.50 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dalkeith Thistle attack 1.50 + St. Cuthbert Wanderers defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

St. Cuthbert Wanderers scores more

20%

level

17%

Dalkeith Thistle scores more

63%

Dalkeith Thistle at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dalkeith Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff