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St. Cuthbert Wanderers vs Burntisland Shipyard — FA Cup 2019

St. Cuthbert Wanderers
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Burntisland Shipyard
Burntisland Shipyard
8/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundSt Mary’s Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

St. Cuthbert Wanderers37%
×Draw19%
Burntisland Shipyard45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Cuthbert Wanderers
2.38
Burntisland Shipyard
2.63

Burntisland Shipyard creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.00

allows per match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers
4.25
Burntisland Shipyard
4.25

finishing

St. Cuthbert Wanderers+0.00on par
Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Cuthbert Wanderers ↓

Burntisland Shipyard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

St. Cuthbert Wanderers or draw
55%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers or Burntisland Shipyard
81%
Draw or Burntisland Shipyard
63%

Winning margin

St. Cuthbert Wanderers wins by 2+
21%
Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

St. Cuthbert Wanderers 1+ goals
91%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2+ goals
68%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers 3+ goals
42%
Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals
93%
Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals
73%
Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

St. Cuthbert Wanderers (draw refunded)
45%
Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Cuthbert Wanderers at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Burntisland Shipyard away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Cuthbert Wanderers attack 0.50 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.00 + St. Cuthbert Wanderers defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. Cuthbert Wanderers scores more
37%
level
19%
Burntisland Shipyard scores more
45%

Burntisland Shipyard at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burntisland Shipyard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: St. Cuthbert Wanderers 0–2 Burntisland Shipyard

Burntisland Shipyard beat St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2-0 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at St Mary’s Park in Kirkcudbright, Kirkcudbrightshire.