VRI 4–8 Hjørring IF: Result & Stats | League #126

VRI

FT

4 – 8

Hjørring IF

10/5/2013

League #126 · Round 9NES Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VRI13%

×Draw13%

Hjørring IF75%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VRIExpected goals in this matchHjørring IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

3.92

VRI

1.67

Hjørring IF

3.92

Hjørring IF creates 135% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

3.50

4.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

VRI

2.33

Hjørring IF

3.50

allows per match

VRI

4.33

Hjørring IF

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VRI+0.00on par

Hjørring IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VRI ↓

Hjørring IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

VRI or draw

25%

VRI or Hjørring IF

87%

Draw or Hjørring IF

87%

Winning margin

VRI wins by 2+

5%

Hjørring IF wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

VRI 1+ goals

81%

VRI 2+ goals

50%

VRI 3+ goals

23%

Hjørring IF 1+ goals

98%

Hjørring IF 2+ goals

89%

Hjørring IF 3+ goals

72%

Draw no bet

VRI (draw refunded)

14%

Hjørring IF (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VRI at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Hjørring IF away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VRI attack 2.33 + Hjørring IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hjørring IF attack 3.50 + VRI defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

VRI scores more

13%

level

13%

Hjørring IF scores more

75%

Hjørring IF at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hjørring IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff