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St. Anna vs Kalsdorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

St. Anna
St. Anna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
7/30/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 2Bollwerk-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

St. Anna48%
×Draw22%
Kalsdorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Anna
1.95
Kalsdorf
1.51

St. Anna creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 79 away

creates per match

St. Anna
1.79
Kalsdorf
1.20

allows per match

St. Anna
1.82
Kalsdorf
2.10

finishing

St. Anna+0.00on par
Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Anna ↓

Kalsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

St. Anna or draw
70%
St. Anna or Kalsdorf
78%
Draw or Kalsdorf
52%

Winning margin

St. Anna wins by 2+
27%
Kalsdorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Anna 1+ goals
86%
St. Anna 2+ goals
58%
St. Anna 3+ goals
31%
Kalsdorf 1+ goals
78%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
44%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Anna (draw refunded)
61%
Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Anna at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 90 matches

Kalsdorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Anna attack 1.79 + Kalsdorf defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.95

Kalsdorf attack 1.20 + St. Anna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Anna scores more
48%
level
22%
Kalsdorf scores more
30%

St. Anna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St. Anna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: St. Anna 2–1 Kalsdorf

St. Anna beat Kalsdorf 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Bollwerk-Arena in Aigen.