St. Anna 2–0 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

St. Anna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bad Gleichenberg

5/6/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 25Bollwerk-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

St. Anna42%

×Draw22%

Bad Gleichenberg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. AnnaExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.79

St. Anna

1.92

Bad Gleichenberg

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.79

creates per match

1.75

1.82

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

St. Anna

1.79

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

St. Anna

1.82

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Anna+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Anna ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

St. Anna or draw

63%

St. Anna or Bad Gleichenberg

78%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

58%

Winning margin

St. Anna wins by 2+

23%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

St. Anna 1+ goals

85%

St. Anna 2+ goals

57%

St. Anna 3+ goals

30%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

83%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

53%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

St. Anna (draw refunded)

53%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Anna at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 90 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Anna attack 1.79 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.92

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + St. Anna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Anna scores more

42%

level

22%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

37%

St. Anna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Anna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff