St. Andrews 2–3 Gzira United: Result & Stats

St. Andrews

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Gzira United

J. Walker 74'

Ž. Kastrevec 44'

E. Amaira 84'

I. Adeshina 68'

A. Cohen 16'

5/4/2017

League #393 · Round 33Hibernians Stadium (Corradino, Paola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

St. Andrews44%

×Draw26%

Gzira United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. AndrewsExpected goals in this matchGzira United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

St. Andrews

1.44

Gzira United

1.15

St. Andrews creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 47 away

1.33

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

St. Andrews

1.33

Gzira United

1.30

allows per match

St. Andrews

1.00

Gzira United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Andrews+0.00on par

Gzira United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrews ↓

Gzira United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

St. Andrews or draw

70%

St. Andrews or Gzira United

74%

Draw or Gzira United

56%

Winning margin

St. Andrews wins by 2+

21%

Gzira United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Andrews 1+ goals

76%

St. Andrews 2+ goals

42%

St. Andrews 3+ goals

18%

Gzira United 1+ goals

68%

Gzira United 2+ goals

32%

Gzira United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

St. Andrews (draw refunded)

59%

Gzira United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrews at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gzira United away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrews attack 1.33 + Gzira United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gzira United attack 1.30 + St. Andrews defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. Andrews scores more

44%

level

26%

Gzira United scores more

30%

St. Andrews at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St. Andrews will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

44'

68'

74'

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff