St. Andrew Lions 2–2 Wotton: Result & Stats

St. Andrew Lions

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Wotton

4/22/2026

Premier League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

St. Andrew Lions50%

×Draw19%

Wotton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Andrew LionsExpected goals in this matchWotton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

2.02

St. Andrew Lions

2.56

Wotton

2.02

St. Andrew Lions creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.18

creates per match

1.13

2.91

allows per match

3.94

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions

1.18

Wotton

1.13

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions

2.91

Wotton

3.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Wotton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw

69%

St. Andrew Lions or Wotton

81%

Draw or Wotton

50%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

31%

Wotton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

92%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

72%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

46%

Wotton 1+ goals

87%

Wotton 2+ goals

60%

Wotton 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

62%

Wotton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.18 + Wotton defence 3.94 → ÷2 → 2.56

Wotton attack 1.13 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more

50%

level

19%

Wotton scores more

31%

St. Andrew Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Andrew Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff