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St. Andrew Lions vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2019

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
FT
3 – 2
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
3/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

St. Andrew Lions13%
×Draw15%
Weymouth Wales72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
1.19
Weymouth Wales
2.96

Weymouth Wales creates 149% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.61
Weymouth Wales
3.05

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
2.87
Weymouth Wales
0.76

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
28%
St. Andrew Lions or Weymouth Wales
85%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
87%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
5%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
70%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
33%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
12%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
95%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
79%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
15%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.61 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.19

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
13%
level
15%
Weymouth Wales scores more
72%

Weymouth Wales at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Andrew Lions vs Weymouth Wales

St. Andrew Lions beat Weymouth Wales 3-2 in Premier League on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.