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St. Andrew Lions vs Notre Dame — Premier League 2019

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
FT
2 – 5
Notre Dame
Notre Dame
4/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

St. Andrew Lions29%
×Draw19%
Notre Dame52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
1.89
Notre Dame
2.54

Notre Dame creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.61
Notre Dame
2.22

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
2.87
Notre Dame
2.17

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Notre Dame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
48%
St. Andrew Lions or Notre Dame
81%
Draw or Notre Dame
71%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
15%
Notre Dame wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
85%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
56%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
29%
Notre Dame 1+ goals
92%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
72%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
36%
Notre Dame (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.61 + Notre Dame defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Notre Dame attack 2.22 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
29%
level
19%
Notre Dame scores more
52%

Notre Dame at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Notre Dame will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: St. Andrew Lions 2–5 Notre Dame

Notre Dame beat St. Andrew Lions 5-2 in Premier League on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.