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St. Andrew Lions vs BDF — Premier League 2019

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
FT
0 – 1
BDF
BDF
2/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St. Andrew Lions34%
×Draw20%
BDF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
2.07
BDF
2.40

BDF creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.61
BDF
1.93

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
2.87
BDF
2.53

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
BDF+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

BDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
54%
St. Andrew Lions or BDF
80%
Draw or BDF
66%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
18%
BDF wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
87%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
61%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
34%
BDF 1+ goals
91%
BDF 2+ goals
69%
BDF 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
43%
BDF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

BDF away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.61 + BDF defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.07

BDF attack 1.93 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
34%
level
20%
BDF scores more
46%

BDF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "BDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: St. Andrew Lions 0–1 BDF

BDF beat St. Andrew Lions 1-0 in Premier League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.